Jaguars vs Titans – Week 13 2025
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
25@3
JAX BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 25, Tennessee Titans 3.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jaguars, 4 Titans.
Model confidence: JAX 76%Our line: JAX -9.4
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -9.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.260
+0.030 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.160 (30)
-0.105 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.100 (28)
44.4% (15)Offense success %37.4% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 9.4. Actual: 22. Off by 12.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
| TEN@JAXW11 2023 | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs TEN
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project JAX by 9.4. The market has JAX at -6.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 25, TEN 3. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -6.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 13, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 1.9 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against TEN -0.260.
