2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ TEN – Week 13 2025
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
25@3
JAX +22
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 76%Projected margin: -7.2
JAX
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-7.2
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 22. Off by 14.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
| TEN@JAXW11 2023 | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES