JAX @ TEN – Week 13 2025
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
25@3
JAX BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 76%Our line: JAX -9.4
JAX
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-9.4
OUR LINE
-310
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.260
+0.030Offense EPA / play-0.160
-0.105Defense EPA / play+0.100
44.4%Offense success %37.4%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 9.4. Actual: 22. Off by 12.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -270 | +220 |
| Our fair price | -310 | +310 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
76%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2 SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9 SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
| TEN@JAXW11 2023 | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project JAX by 9.4. The market has JAX at -6.0.
The model projects 44.4 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against TEN -0.260.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
