2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ CAR – Week 13 2025
LA
CAR
LA
AWAY
28@31
CAR +3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER A
PICK: LA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LA 75%Projected margin: -6.6
LA
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
-6.6
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but CAR won. Projected margin was 6.6 -- the model overestimated by 9.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LA
P.Nacua
WR
375.0SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
350.4SEASON PPR
K.Williams
RB
263.3SEASON PPR
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@LAW6 2022 | CAR 10, LA 24 | LA | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES