DEN @ WAS – Week 13 2025
DEN
WAS
DEN
AWAY
27@26
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 74%Our line: DEN -8.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.8
OUR LINE
-289
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.050Offense EPA / play+0.005
-0.088Defense EPA / play+0.142
44.2%Offense success %45.6%
36.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 8.8. Actual: 1. Off by 7.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -310 | +250 |
| Our fair price | -289 | +289 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
73%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8 SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7 SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DENW2 2023 | WAS 35, DEN 33 | WAS | W |
| WAS@DENW8 2021 | WAS 10, DEN 17 | WAS | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DEN by 8.8. The market has DEN at -6.5.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 35, DEN 33 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against WAS -0.137.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
