Broncos vs Commanders – Week 13 2025
DEN
WAS
DEN
AWAY
27@26
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 27, Washington Commanders 26.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 4 Commanders.
Model confidence: DEN 74%Our line: DEN -8.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -8.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.050 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (18)
-0.088 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.142 (30)
44.2% (16)Offense success %45.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 8.8. Actual: 1. Off by 7.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DENW2 2023 | WAS 35, DEN 33 | WAS | W |
| WAS@DENW8 2021 | WAS 10, DEN 17 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs WAS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DEN by 8.8. The market has DEN at -6.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 27, WAS 26. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -6.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 13, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 35, DEN 33 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against WAS -0.137.
