GB @ DET – Week 13 2025
GB
DET
GB
AWAY
31@24
GB BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 62%Our line: DET -4.2
DET
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.2
OUR LINE
-165
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.082Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.115Offense EPA / play+0.081
+0.033Defense EPA / play-0.010
47.7%Offense success %45.2%
44.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but GB won. Projected margin was 4.2, the model overestimated by 11.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 |
| Our fair price | +165 | -165 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1 SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1 SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
165.4 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love3381 yd · 23 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
J.Jacobs929 yd · 13 TD
E.Wilson496 yd · 3 TD
J.Love199 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
R.Doubs55 rec · 724 yd · 6 TD
C.Watson35 rec · 611 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.2. The market has DET at -2.5.
The model projects 46.5 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, THU 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, DET 13, GB 27 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: GB +0.082 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
