2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ TB – Week 13 2025
ARI
TB
ARI
AWAY
17@20
TB +3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER A
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 72%Projected margin: 6.4
TB
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 3. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@ARIW16 2022 | TB 19, ARI 16 | TB | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES