Cardinals vs Buccaneers – Week 13 2025
ARI
TB
ARI
AWAY
17@20
TB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Cardinals, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 72%Our line: TB -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -7.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.018 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (20)
+0.088 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.013 (17)
43.0% (22)Offense success %42.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 7.7. Actual: 3. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@ARIW16 2022 | TB 19, ARI 16 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project TB by 7.7. The market has TB at -4.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, ARI 17, TB 20. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -4.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 13, the Arizona Cardinals were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 1.4 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 19, ARI 16 in Week 16 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ARI -0.107 against TB -0.022.
