CHI @ PHI – Week 13 2025
CHI
PHI
CHI
AWAY
24@15
CHI BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 66%Our line: PHI -5.6
PHI
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.6
OUR LINE
-194
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.080Offense EPA / play+0.026
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.079
45.8%Offense success %43.1%
46.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but CHI won. Projected margin was 5.6, the model overestimated by 14.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.0 points.
HIGH WIND
18 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +270 | -340 |
| Our fair price | +194 | -194 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
18 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2 SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6 SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3942 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift1087 yd · 9 TD
K.Monangai783 yd · 5 TD
C.Williams383 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.Loveland58 rec · 713 yd · 6 TD
D.Moore50 rec · 682 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@CHIW15 2022 | PHI 25, CHI 20 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.6. The market has PHI at -7.0.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, FRI 3:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 25, CHI 20 in Week 15 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: CHI +0.061 against PHI +0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
