Bears vs Eagles – Week 13 2025
CHI
PHI
CHI
AWAY
24@15
CHI BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 24, Philadelphia Eagles 15.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 Bears, 3 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 66%Our line: PHI -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -5.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.080 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
+0.018 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.079 (8)
45.8% (9)Offense success %43.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but CHI won. Projected margin was 5.6, the model overestimated by 14.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.0 points.
HIGH WIND
18 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
18 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@CHIW3 2026 | PHI 7, CHI 27 | PHI | L |
| PHI@CHIW15 2022 | PHI 25, CHI 20 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.6. The market has PHI at -7.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 24, PHI 15. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -7.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 13, the Chicago Bears were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 2.1 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, FRI 3:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, PHI 7, CHI 27 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: CHI +0.061 against PHI +0.105.
