Eagles vs Bears – Week 15 2022
PHI
CHI
PHI
AWAY
25@20
PHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 25, Chicago Bears 20.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles, 3 Bears.
Model confidence: PHI 80%Our line: PHI -11.4
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -11.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.172Net EPA / play-0.164
+0.107 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.046 (23)
-0.064 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (32)
48.3% (3)Offense success %40.5% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 11.4. Actual: 5. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds and 17°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
17°F
WIND
17 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@CHIW3 2026 | PHI 7, CHI 27 | PHI | L |
| CHI@PHIW13 2025 | CHI 24, PHI 15 | PHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs CHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PHI by 11.4. The market has PHI at -8.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 25, CHI 20. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -8.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 15, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 1.1 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, PHI 7, CHI 27 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.172 against CHI -0.164.
