Ravens vs Browns – Week 15 2022
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
3@13
CLE BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 3, Cleveland Browns 13.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 62%Our line: BAL -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.019Net EPA / play-0.001
+0.004 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (10)
-0.014 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.014 (22)
45.3% (11)Offense success %44.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but CLE won. Projected margin was 4.2, the model overestimated by 14.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
COLD GAME
34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
12 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW6 2026 | BAL 10, CLE 13 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CLE
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.2. The market has BAL at +2.5.
Cleveland Browns won, BAL 3, CLE 13. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at +2.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 15, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 7.1 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Cleveland Browns, BAL 10, CLE 13 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.019 against CLE -0.001.
