2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ JAX – Week 15 2022
DAL
JAX
DAL
AWAY
34@40
JAX +6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 74%Projected margin: -7.8
DAL
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-7.8
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but JAX won. Projected margin was 7.8 -- the model overestimated by 13.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -188 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
301.6SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
248.8SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
198.6SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES