DAL @ JAX – Week 15 2022
DAL
JAX
DAL
AWAY
34@40
JAX BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 74%Our line: DAL -8.6
DAL
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.6
OUR LINE
-283
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.109Net EPA / play+0.067
+0.012Offense EPA / play+0.046
-0.097Defense EPA / play-0.021
44.6%Offense success %46.3%
40.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but JAX won. Projected margin was 8.6, the model overestimated by 14.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -188 | +168 |
| Our fair price | -283 | +283 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
301.6 SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
248.8 SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
198.6 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Dak Prescott2860 yd · 23 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Tony Pollard1007 yd · 9 TD
Ezekiel Elliott876 yd · 12 TD
Dak Prescott182 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
CeeDee Lamb107 rec · 1359 yd · 9 TD
Dalton Schultz57 rec · 577 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 8.6. The market has DAL at -4.0.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.109 against JAX +0.067.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
