Cowboys vs Jaguars – Week 15 2022
DAL
JAX
DAL
AWAY
34@40
JAX BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 40.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 74%Our line: DAL -8.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -8.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.109Net EPA / play+0.067
+0.012 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (8)
-0.097 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.021 (13)
44.6% (15)Offense success %46.3% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but JAX won. Projected margin was 8.6, the model overestimated by 14.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs JAX
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 8.6. The market has DAL at -4.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, DAL 34, JAX 40. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -4.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 15, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 2.4 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.109 against JAX +0.067.
