Titans vs Chargers – Week 15 2022
TEN
LAC
TEN
AWAY
14@17
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 14, Los Angeles Chargers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 7 Titans, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 63%Our line: LAC -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -4.5
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.001
-0.059 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (13)
+0.004 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (19)
41.1% (22)Offense success %44.1% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 4.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@TENW9 2025 | LAC 27, TEN 20 | LAC | W |
| TEN@LACW10 2024 | TEN 17, LAC 27 | LAC | W |
| LAC@TENW2 2023 | LAC 24, TEN 27 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 4.5. The market has LAC at -3.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, TEN 14, LAC 17. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Tennessee Titans were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 0.9 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 27, TEN 20 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: TEN -0.064 against LAC +0.001.
