2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ LAC – Week 15 2022
TEN
LAC
TEN
AWAY
14@17
LAC +3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: LAC 63%Projected margin: 2.1
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
2.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 2.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+3.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -158 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
WR
117.7SEASON PPR
LAC
Austin Ekeler
RB
372.7SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
281.3SEASON PPR
Mike Williams
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@TENW9 2025 | LAC 27, TEN 20 | LAC | W |
| TEN@LACW10 2024 | TEN 17, LAC 27 | LAC | W |
| LAC@TENW2 2023 | LAC 24, TEN 27 | LAC | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES