Chargers vs Titans – Week 9 2025
LAC
TEN
LAC
AWAY
27@20
LAC BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 27, Tennessee Titans 20.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chargers, 4 Titans.
Model confidence: LAC 77%Our line: LAC -10.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -10.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.260
-0.024 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.160 (30)
-0.083 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.100 (28)
43.1% (19)Offense success %37.4% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 10.1. Actual: 7. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@LACW10 2024 | TEN 17, LAC 27 | LAC | W |
| LAC@TENW2 2023 | LAC 24, TEN 27 | LAC | L |
| TEN@LACW15 2022 | TEN 14, LAC 17 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs TEN
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LAC by 10.1. The market has LAC at -10.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 27, TEN 20. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -10.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 9, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.4, 1.1 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, TEN 17, LAC 27 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.059 against TEN -0.260.
