SEA @ WAS – Week 9 2025
SEA
WAS
SEA
AWAY
38@14
SEA BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 66%Our line: SEA -5.7
SEA
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.7
OUR LINE
-197
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.150Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.033Offense EPA / play+0.005
-0.117Defense EPA / play+0.142
46.3%Offense success %45.6%
39.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 24. Off by 18.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -148 | +124 |
| Our fair price | -197 | +197 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SEA
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
359.9 SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
235.4 SEASON PPR
K.Walker
RB
191.9 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
S.Darnold4048 yd · 25 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
K.Walker1027 yd · 5 TD
Z.Charbonnet730 yd · 12 TD
S.Darnold95 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Smith-Njigba119 rec · 1793 yd · 10 TD
C.Kupp47 rec · 593 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@SEAW10 2023 | WAS 26, SEA 29 | SEA | W |
| SEA@WASW12 2021 | SEA 15, WAS 17 | WAS | W |
| SEA@WASW15 2020 | SEA 20, WAS 15 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.7. The market has SEA at -2.5.
The model projects 42.9 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, WAS 26, SEA 29 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.150 against WAS -0.137.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
