Seahawks vs Commanders – Week 9 2025
SEA
WAS
SEA
AWAY
38@14
SEA BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 38, Washington Commanders 14.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Seahawks, 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: SEA 66%Our line: SEA -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -5.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.150Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.033 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (18)
-0.117 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.142 (30)
46.3% (7)Offense success %45.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 24. Off by 18.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@WASW3 2026 | SEA 31, WAS 33 | SEA | L |
| WAS@SEAW10 2023 | WAS 26, SEA 29 | SEA | W |
| SEA@WASW12 2021 | SEA 15, WAS 17 | WAS | W |
| SEA@WASW15 2020 | SEA 20, WAS 15 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs WAS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.7. The market has SEA at -2.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 38, WAS 14. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -2.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the Seattle Seahawks were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.9, 4.6 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Washington Commanders, SEA 31, WAS 33 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.150 against WAS -0.137.
