Panthers vs Packers – Week 9 2025
CAR
GB
CAR
AWAY
16@13
CAR BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 16, Green Bay Packers 13.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Panthers, 3 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 74%Our line: GB -8.6
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -8.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.082
-0.039 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.115 (4)
+0.067 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (22)
43.1% (21)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but CAR won. Projected margin was 8.6, the model overestimated by 11.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CARW16 2023 | GB 33, CAR 30 | GB | W |
| CAR@GBW15 2020 | CAR 16, GB 24 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 8.6. The market has GB at -12.5.
Carolina Panthers won, CAR 16, GB 13. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -12.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 9, the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 2.7 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 33, CAR 30 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: CAR -0.107 against GB +0.082.
