CAR @ GB – Week 9 2025
CAR
GB
CAR
AWAY
16@13
CAR BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 74%Our line: GB -8.6
GB
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.6
OUR LINE
-282
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.082
-0.039Offense EPA / play+0.115
+0.067Defense EPA / play+0.033
43.1%Offense success %47.7%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but CAR won. Projected margin was 8.6, the model overestimated by 11.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +650 | -1000 |
| Our fair price | +282 | -282 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0 SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3 SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
213.4 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young3011 yd · 23 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
R.Dowdle1076 yd · 6 TD
C.Hubbard511 yd · 1 TD
B.Young216 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
T.McMillan70 rec · 1014 yd · 7 TD
J.Coker33 rec · 394 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CARW16 2023 | GB 33, CAR 30 | GB | W |
| CAR@GBW15 2020 | CAR 16, GB 24 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 8.6. The market has GB at -12.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 33, CAR 30 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: CAR -0.107 against GB +0.082.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
