2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ GB – Week 9 2025
CAR
GB
CAR
AWAY
16@13
CAR +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 74%Projected margin: 7.4
GB
PICK SIDE
-12.5
SPREAD
7.4
PROJ MARGIN
-604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but CAR won. Projected margin was 7.4 -- the model overestimated by 10.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
15 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
213.4SEASON PPR
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CARW16 2023 | GB 33, CAR 30 | GB | W |
| CAR@GBW15 2020 | CAR 16, GB 24 | GB | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES