2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ CAR – Week 16 2023
GB
CAR
GB
AWAY
33@30
GB +3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 64%Projected margin: -2.9
GB
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-2.9
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 2.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -198 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
1 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
GB
Jordan Love
QB
319.1SEASON PPR
Jayden Reed
WR
217.2SEASON PPR
Romeo Doubs
WR
174.4SEASON PPR
CAR
Adam Thielen
WR
231.0SEASON PPR
Chuba Hubbard
RB
182.5SEASON PPR
Bryce Young
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@GBW9 2025 | CAR 16, GB 13 | GB | L |
| CAR@GBW15 2020 | CAR 16, GB 24 | GB | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES