Packers vs Panthers – Week 16 2023
GB
CAR
GB
AWAY
33@30
GB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 33, Carolina Panthers 30.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 64%Our line: GB -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.056Net EPA / play-0.200
+0.064 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.177 (30)
+0.008 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.023 (27)
44.6% (9)Offense success %37.6% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 4.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@GBW9 2025 | CAR 16, GB 13 | GB | L |
| CAR@GBW15 2020 | CAR 16, GB 24 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs CAR
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.9. The market has GB at -3.5.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 33, CAR 30. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 16, the Green Bay Packers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 5.5 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 16, GB 13 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.056 against CAR -0.200.
