BAL @ SF – Week 16 2023
BAL
SF
BAL
AWAY
33@19
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 66%Our line: SF -5.7
SF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.7
OUR LINE
-197
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.215Net EPA / play+0.255
+0.066Offense EPA / play+0.174
-0.149Defense EPA / play-0.082
47.4%Offense success %51.1%
40.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but BAL won. Projected margin was 5.7, the model overestimated by 19.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +275 | -345 |
| Our fair price | +197 | -197 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2 SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4 SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
187.0 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
Lamar Jackson3678 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Lamar Jackson821 yd · 5 TD
Gus Edwards810 yd · 13 TD
Keaton Mitchell396 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Zay Flowers77 rec · 858 yd · 5 TD
Odell Beckham Jr.35 rec · 565 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 5.7. The market has SF at -6.5.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: BAL +0.215 against SF +0.255.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
