2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ SF – Week 16 2023
BAL
SF
BAL
AWAY
33@19
BAL +14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 66%Projected margin: 3.6
SF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
3.6
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but BAL won. Projected margin was 3.6 -- the model overestimated by 17.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -345 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
187.0SEASON PPR
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
391.3SEASON PPR
Brock Purdy
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES