Ravens vs 49ers – Week 16 2023
BAL
SF
BAL
AWAY
33@19
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 33, San Francisco 49ers 19.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens, 4 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 66%Our line: SF -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -5.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.215Net EPA / play+0.255
+0.066 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.174 (1)
-0.149 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.082 (7)
47.4% (3)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but BAL won. Projected margin was 5.7, the model overestimated by 19.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 5.7. The market has SF at -6.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 33, SF 19. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -6.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 16, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 2.2 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: BAL +0.215 against SF +0.255.
