Colts vs Falcons – Week 16 2023
IND
ATL
IND
AWAY
10@29
ATL BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 10, Atlanta Falcons 29.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Colts, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 56%Our line: ATL -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -2.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.019Net EPA / play-0.040
-0.035 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (26)
-0.017 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (11)
40.8% (24)Offense success %41.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 19. Off by 16.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@INDW10 2025 | ATL 25, IND 31 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 2.1. The market has ATL at -3.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, IND 10, ATL 29. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -3.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Indianapolis Colts were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.3, 0.7 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, ATL 25, IND 31 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.019 against ATL -0.040.
