2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ ATL – Week 16 2023
IND
ATL
IND
AWAY
10@29
ATL +19
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: ATL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ATL 56%Projected margin: 0.6
ATL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 19. Off by 18.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -155 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
169.6SEASON PPR
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@INDW10 2025 | ATL 25, IND 31 | IND | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES