2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ LA – Week 16 2023
NO
LA
NO
AWAY
22@30
LA +8
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LA 61%Projected margin: 1.4
LA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
1.4
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 1.4. Actual: 8. Off by 6.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -218 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
231.3SEASON PPR
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@LAW9 2025 | NO 10, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@NOW13 2024 | LA 21, NO 14 | NO | L |
| LA@NOW11 2022 | LA 20, NO 27 | NO | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES