Bills vs Chargers – Week 16 2023
BUF
LAC
BUF
AWAY
24@22
BUF BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 24, Los Angeles Chargers 22.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 4 Chargers.
Model confidence: BUF 69%Our line: BUF -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.182Net EPA / play-0.088
+0.108 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.076 (24)
-0.074 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (25)
49.0% (2)Offense success %41.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.6. Actual: 2. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@BUFW3 2026 | LAC 16, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| LAC@BUFW12 2020 | LAC 17, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs LAC
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.6. The market has BUF at -13.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 24, LAC 22. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -13.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 16, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 0.1 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SAT 8:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, LAC 16, BUF 24 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.182 against LAC -0.088.
