2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ LAC – Week 16 2023
BUF
LAC
BUF
AWAY
24@22
BUF +2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 69%Projected margin: -5.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-13.0
SPREAD
-5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-649
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 2. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -649 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -800 | Won · +$0.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
392.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
273.8SEASON PPR
James Cook
RB
232.7SEASON PPR
LAC
Keenan Allen
WR
278.9SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
234.2SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@BUFW12 2020 | LAC 17, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES