2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ PIT – Week 16 2023
CIN
PIT
CIN
AWAY
11@34
PIT +23
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 61%Projected margin: -1.3
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-1.3
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but PIT won. Projected margin was 1.3 -- the model overestimated by 24.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 26.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -155 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2SEASON PPR
PIT
George Pickens
WR
208.8SEASON PPR
Jaylen Warren
RB
196.4SEASON PPR
Najee Harris
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW12 2023 | PIT 16, CIN 10 | PIT | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES