Bengals vs Steelers – Week 16 2023
CIN
PIT
CIN
AWAY
11@34
PIT BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 11, Pittsburgh Steelers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals, 3 Steelers.
Model confidence: CIN 61%Our line: CIN -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -3.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.044Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.010 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (23)
+0.034 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
44.0% (10)Offense success %42.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but PIT won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 26.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 26.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs PIT
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CIN by 3.9. The market has CIN at -3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, CIN 11, PIT 34. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.1, 4.6 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: CIN -0.044 against PIT -0.013.
