Bengals vs Steelers – Week 18 2024
CIN
PIT
CIN
AWAY
19@17
CIN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 19, Pittsburgh Steelers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 3 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 50%Our line: PIT +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.090 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.034 (20)
+0.037 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (10)
47.2% (9)Offense success %40.4% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CIN won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 2.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
COLD GAME
19°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
19°F
WIND
10 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CIN by 0.0. The market has PIT at +2.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 19, PIT 17. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 18, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 3.1 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SAT 8:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.053 against PIT -0.016.
