Dolphins vs Jets – Week 18 2024
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
20@32
NYJ BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 20, New York Jets 32.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: MIA 66%Our line: MIA -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -5.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.017Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.039 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (17)
-0.022 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
44.3% (15)Offense success %42.6% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but NYJ won. Projected margin was 5.7, the model overestimated by 17.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
COLD GAME
34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
10 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW12 2023 | MIA 34, NYJ 13 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NYJ
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.7. The market has MIA at +1.5.
New York Jets won, MIA 20, NYJ 32. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +1.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 18, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 6.3 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.017 against NYJ -0.037.
