2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ NYJ – Week 18 2024
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
20@32
NYJ +12
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 66%Projected margin: -4.2
MIA
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-4.2
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but NYJ won. Projected margin was 4.2 -- the model overestimated by 16.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
COLD GAME
34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +102 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
No noteworthy trends
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
10 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
218.2SEASON PPR
NYJ
A.Rodgers
QB
256.6SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
251.9SEASON PPR
B.Hall
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW12 2023 | MIA 34, NYJ 13 | MIA | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES