Commanders vs Cowboys – Week 18 2024
WAS
DAL
WAS
AWAY
23@19
WAS BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 23, Dallas Cowboys 19.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Commanders.
Model confidence: DAL 60%Our line: DAL -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.139 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (29)
+0.011 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.083 (30)
48.5% (4)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but WAS won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 7.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
No noteworthy trends
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW2 2026 | WAS 20, DAL 37 | DAL | W |
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
| DAL@WASW18 2023 | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.3. The market has DAL at +7.0.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 23, DAL 19. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +7.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 18, the Washington Commanders were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.3, 0.2 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, WAS 20, DAL 37 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.128 against DAL -0.192.
