Chiefs vs Broncos – Week 18 2024
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
0@38
DEN BY 38
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 0, Denver Broncos 38.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 13 Chiefs, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: KC 62%Our line: KC -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
KC +10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.070 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.020 (14)
+0.011 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (1)
47.6% (6)Offense success %42.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but DEN won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 42.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.5 points.
COLD GAME
28°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
28°F
WIND
5 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs DEN
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 4.3. The market has KC at +10.5.
Denver Broncos won, KC 0, DEN 38. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at +10.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 18, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 13 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 4.7 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: KC +0.059 against DEN +0.138.
