2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ DEN – Week 18 2024
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
0@38
DEN +38
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 62%Projected margin: -2.1
KC
PICK SIDE
+10.5
SPREAD
-2.1
PROJ MARGIN
+453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but DEN won. Projected margin was 2.1 -- the model overestimated by 40.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.5 points.
COLD GAME
28°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +10.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | +453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +370 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
28°F
WIND
5 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
187.2SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW6 2023 | DEN 8, KC 19 | KC | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES