KC @ DEN – Week 8 2026
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 8 · 2026 SEASON
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DEN 81%Projected margin: -10.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-10.8
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.035Offense EPA / play+0.050
-0.020Defense EPA / play-0.088
44.5%Offense success %44.2%
43.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors DEN at 81%.
H2H EDGE
DEN has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against KC.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 10.8-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for DEN. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DEN market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
P.Mahomes3587 yd · 22 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
K.Hunt611 yd · 8 TD
I.Pacheco462 yd · 1 TD
P.Mahomes422 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
T.Kelce76 rec · 851 yd · 5 TD
M.Brown49 rec · 587 yd · 5 TD
R.Rice53 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
X.Worthy42 rec · 532 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,587PASSyds3,931
1,495RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | — | DEN | — |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs DEN
Who is favored in Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 81% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 10.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos play?
Week 8 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos game?
Denver Broncos, 20-13 in Week 17 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Kansas City Chiefs or the Denver Broncos?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: KC +0.055 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
