Chiefs vs Broncos – Week 8 2026
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 8 · 2026 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Broncos over the Chiefs at 69% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DEN 69%Our line: DEN -6.9
80% range around our line: KC by 10 to DEN by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DEN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -6.9
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
| SPORTSBOOK | KC | DEN | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +105 | -125 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 8 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
+0.222Net EPA / play-0.041
+0.172 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.066 (24)
-0.050 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (14)
48.6% (5)Offense success %39.9%
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our early forecast in KC @ DEN (Week 8, 2026). The model assigns 69% confidence and projects DEN by 6.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 69% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 6.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Denver Broncos at 69% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 8 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.222 against DEN -0.041.
