Broncos vs Chiefs – Week 10 2024
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
14@16
KC BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 14, Kansas City Chiefs 16.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 74%Our line: KC -8.7
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -8.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.020 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (9)
-0.118 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (16)
42.7% (17)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 8.7. Actual: 2. Off by 6.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 8.7. The market has KC at -7.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, DEN 14, KC 16. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -7.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 10, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 3.1 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against KC +0.059.
