2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ KC – Week 10 2024
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
14@16
KC +2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 74%Projected margin: 8.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
8.1
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 2. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -380 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
157.9SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW6 2023 | DEN 8, KC 19 | KC | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES