NYG @ CAR – Week 10 2024
NYG
CAR
NYG
AWAY
17@20
CAR BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 59%Our line: CAR -3.1
CAR
PICK SIDE
+6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-144
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.170Net EPA / play-0.213
-0.107Offense EPA / play-0.053
+0.063Defense EPA / play+0.160
40.5%Offense success %41.3%
45.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CAR by 3.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -298 | +240 |
| Our fair price | +144 | -144 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CAR +6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$2.55
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
28%
DIFFERENCE
+31%
Both figures are for CAR. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYG
M.Nabers
WR
273.6 SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
182.7 SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
182.3 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
D.Jones2070 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy839 yd · 5 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 4 TD
D.Jones265 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
M.Nabers109 rec · 1204 yd · 7 TD
W.Robinson93 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NYGW2 2022 | CAR 16, NYG 19 | CAR | L |
| CAR@NYGW7 2021 | CAR 3, NYG 25 | CAR | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CAR by 3.1. The market has CAR at +6.5.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
New York Giants, CAR 16, NYG 19 in Week 2 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.170 against CAR -0.213.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
