CAR @ NYG – Week 7 2021
CAR
NYG
CAR
AWAY
3@25
NYG BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 55%Our line: CAR -1.8
CAR
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.8
OUR LINE
-123
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.093Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.138Offense EPA / play-0.161
-0.044Defense EPA / play+0.031
40.9%Offense success %39.3%
40.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but NYG won. Projected margin was 1.8, the model overestimated by 23.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -154 | +139 |
| Our fair price | -123 | +123 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CAR -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
55%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for CAR. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5 SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
138.5 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Sam Darnold2527 yd · 9 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chuba Hubbard612 yd · 5 TD
Christian McCaffrey442 yd · 1 TD
Cam Newton230 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore93 rec · 1157 yd · 4 TD
Robbie Chosen53 rec · 519 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CARW10 2024 | NYG 17, CAR 20 | CAR | W |
| CAR@NYGW2 2022 | CAR 16, NYG 19 | CAR | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CAR by 1.8. The market has CAR at -3.0.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, NYG 17, CAR 20 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Carolina Panthers: CAR -0.093 against NYG -0.192.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
