Broncos vs Browns – Week 7 2021
DEN
CLE
DEN
AWAY
14@17
CLE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 14, Cleveland Browns 17.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 57%Our line: CLE -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -2.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.004Net EPA / play+0.012
+0.015 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.013 (18)
+0.011 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.001 (14)
44.7% (14)Offense success %43.9% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CLE by 2.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
HIGH WIND
27 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
27 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
204.9 SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7 SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3052 yd · 18 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DENW13 2024 | CLE 32, DEN 41 | DEN | W |
| CLE@DENW12 2023 | CLE 12, DEN 29 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 2.4. The market has CLE at -2.0.
Cleveland Browns won, DEN 14, CLE 17. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -2.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 7, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 6.5 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Denver Broncos, CLE 32, DEN 41 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: DEN +0.004 against CLE +0.012.
