Jets vs Patriots – Week 7 2021
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
13@54
NE BY 41
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 13, New England Patriots 54.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 60%Our line: NE -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.220Net EPA / play+0.135
-0.092 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (11)
+0.128 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.066 (5)
41.6% (23)Offense success %48.4% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 41. Off by 37.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 34.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NEW6 2026 | NYJ 19, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.4. The market has NE at -7.0.
New England Patriots won, NYJ 13, NE 54. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 7, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.6 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NYJ 19, NE 26 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NYJ -0.220 against NE +0.135.
