2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ NE – Week 11 2025
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
14@27
NE +13
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: NE
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NE 75%Projected margin: 7.7
NE
PICK SIDE
-12.5
SPREAD
7.7
PROJ MARGIN
-604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 7.7. Actual: 13. Off by 5.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.17 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@NEW18 2023 | NYJ 17, NE 3 | NE | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2023 | NE 15, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES