Cowboys vs Raiders – Week 11 2025
DAL
LV
DAL
AWAY
33@16
DAL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 33, Las Vegas Raiders 16.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: DAL 69%Our line: DAL -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -6.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.070Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.097 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.215 (32)
+0.167 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (21)
46.6% (6)Offense success %37.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 17. Off by 10.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@DALW12 2021 | LV 36, DAL 33 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs LV
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 6.5. The market has DAL at -3.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 33, LV 16. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 11, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 4.3 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 36, DAL 33 in Week 12 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL -0.070 against LV -0.240.
