DAL @ LV – Week 11 2025
DAL
LV
DAL
AWAY
33@16
DAL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 69%Our line: DAL -6.5
DAL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.5
OUR LINE
-219
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.070Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.097Offense EPA / play-0.215
+0.167Defense EPA / play+0.024
46.6%Offense success %37.6%
48.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 17. Off by 10.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -198 | +164 |
| Our fair price | -219 | +219 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8 SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9 SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
D.Prescott4552 yd · 30 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Williams1201 yd · 11 TD
M.Davis250 yd · 2 TD
D.Prescott177 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens93 rec · 1429 yd · 9 TD
C.Lamb75 rec · 1077 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@DALW12 2021 | LV 36, DAL 33 | DAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 6.5. The market has DAL at -3.5.
The model projects 44.2 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 36, DAL 33 in Week 12 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL -0.070 against LV -0.240.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
