Packers vs Giants – Week 11 2025
GB
NYG
GB
AWAY
27@20
GB BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 27, New York Giants 20.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers, 7 Giants.
Model confidence: GB 76%Our line: GB -9.4
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -9.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
76%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.082Net EPA / play-0.075
+0.115 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (17)
+0.033 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.087 (25)
47.7% (5)Offense success %42.1% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 9.4. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
NYG
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@NYGW14 2023 | GB 22, NYG 24 | GB | L |
| NYG@GBW5 2022 | NYG 27, GB 22 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs NYG
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 9.4. The market has GB at -7.5.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 27, NYG 20. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 11, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 2.7 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, GB 22, NYG 24 in Week 14 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against NYG -0.075.
