Buccaneers vs Bills – Week 11 2025
TB
BUF
TB
AWAY
32@44
BUF BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32, Buffalo Bills 44.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Buccaneers, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 65%Our line: BUF -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.022Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.009 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.136 (3)
+0.013 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.016 (13)
42.4% (24)Offense success %48.5% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 12. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@BUFW8 2023 | TB 18, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TBW14 2021 | BUF 27, TB 33 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 5.2. The market has BUF at -6.0.
Buffalo Bills won, TB 32, BUF 44. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -6.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 11, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 0.1 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TB 18, BUF 24 in Week 8 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: TB -0.022 against BUF +0.152.
