TB @ BUF – Week 11 2025
TB
BUF
TB
AWAY
32@44
BUF BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 65%Our line: BUF -5.2
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.2
OUR LINE
-186
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.022Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.009Offense EPA / play+0.136
+0.013Defense EPA / play-0.016
42.4%Offense success %48.5%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 12. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +230 | -285 |
| Our fair price | +186 | -186 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9 SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7 SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield3693 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving588 yd · 1 TD
R.White572 yd · 4 TD
B.Mayfield382 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
E.Egbuka63 rec · 938 yd · 6 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 572 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@BUFW8 2023 | TB 18, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TBW14 2021 | BUF 27, TB 33 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 5.2. The market has BUF at -6.0.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TB 18, BUF 24 in Week 8 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: TB -0.022 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
