Bills vs Buccaneers – Week 14 2021
BUF
TB
BUF
AWAY
27@33
TB BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 1 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 56%Our line: TB -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -2.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.242Net EPA / play+0.217
+0.101 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.137 (2)
-0.141 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.080 (4)
47.7% (5)Offense success %49.4% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 6. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@BUFW11 2025 | TB 32, BUF 44 | BUF | W |
| TB@BUFW8 2023 | TB 18, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 2.1. The market has TB at -3.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, BUF 27, TB 33. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 14, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 5.6 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TB 32, BUF 44 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.242 against TB +0.217.
