BUF @ TB – Week 14 2021
BUF
TB
BUF
AWAY
27@33
TB BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 56%Our line: TB -2.1
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.1
OUR LINE
-128
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.242Net EPA / play+0.217
+0.101Offense EPA / play+0.137
-0.141Defense EPA / play-0.080
47.7%Offense success %49.4%
39.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 6. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +161 | -181 |
| Our fair price | +128 | -128 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6 SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5 SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
197.8 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
Josh Allen4407 yd · 36 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary870 yd · 7 TD
Josh Allen763 yd · 6 TD
Zack Moss345 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Stefon Diggs103 rec · 1225 yd · 10 TD
Cole Beasley82 rec · 693 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@BUFW11 2025 | TB 32, BUF 44 | BUF | W |
| TB@BUFW8 2023 | TB 18, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 2.1. The market has TB at -3.5.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TB 32, BUF 44 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.242 against TB +0.217.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
