2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ TB – Week 14 2021
BUF
TB
BUF
AWAY
27@33
TB +6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 56%Projected margin: 1.9
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 1.9. Actual: 6. Off by 4.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -181 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@BUFW11 2025 | TB 32, BUF 44 | BUF | W |
| TB@BUFW8 2023 | TB 18, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES