49ers vs Bengals – Week 14 2021
SF
CIN
SF
AWAY
26@23
SF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 26, Cincinnati Bengals 23.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 49% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 49ers, 4 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 49%Our line: CIN +0.5
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN +0.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
49%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.120Net EPA / play+0.069
+0.087 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.057 (12)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (13)
45.7% (12)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but SF won. Projected margin was 0.5, the model overestimated by 2.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
339.0 SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5 SEASON PPR
198.0 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo3810 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 49% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 0.5. The market has CIN at +2.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 26, CIN 23. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 49% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at +2.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 14, the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 1.5 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 31, SF 17 in Week 8 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.120 against CIN +0.069.
