Jaguars vs Titans – Week 14 2021
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
0@20
TEN BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 0, Tennessee Titans 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars, 5 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 69%Our line: TEN -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -6.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.206Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.088 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.022 (15)
+0.118 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.033 (9)
44.0% (18)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 20. Off by 13.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TEN by 6.5. The market has TEN at -8.5.
Tennessee Titans won, JAX 0, TEN 20. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -8.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 14, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 2.4 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: JAX -0.206 against TEN +0.055.
