2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ TEN – Week 14 2021
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
0@20
TEN +20
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TEN 69%Projected margin: 8.6
TEN
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
8.6
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 8.6. Actual: 20. Off by 11.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -384 | Won · +$0.29 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
0 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
173.9SEASON PPR
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
268.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
193.3SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES