PIT @ MIN – Week 14 2021
PIT
MIN
PIT
AWAY
28@36
MIN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 52%Our line: MIN -0.6
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-0.6
OUR LINE
-107
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.074Offense EPA / play+0.017
+0.016Defense EPA / play-0.018
39.1%Offense success %41.4%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 8. Off by 7.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +157 | -175 |
| Our fair price | +107 | -107 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
Chase Claypool59 rec · 860 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@PITW4 2025 | MIN 21, PIT 24 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.6. The market has MIN at -3.5.
The model projects 47.4 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, MIN 21, PIT 24 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: PIT -0.090 against MIN +0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
