Steelers vs Vikings – Week 14 2021
PIT
MIN
PIT
AWAY
28@36
MIN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Minnesota Vikings 36.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Steelers, 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 52%Our line: MIN -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -0.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.074 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.017 (16)
+0.016 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (12)
39.1% (31)Offense success %41.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 8. Off by 7.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@PITW4 2025 | MIN 21, PIT 24 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.6. The market has MIN at -3.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, PIT 28, MIN 36. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 14, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 2.4 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, MIN 21, PIT 24 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: PIT -0.090 against MIN +0.035.
