2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ CAR – Week 14 2021
ATL
CAR
ATL
AWAY
29@21
ATL +8
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CAR
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CAR 51%Projected margin: 0.1
CAR
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but ATL won. Projected margin was 0.1 -- the model overestimated by 8.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +123 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6SEASON PPR
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ATLW11 2025 | CAR 30, ATL 27 | CAR | W |
| ATL@CARW3 2025 | ATL 0, CAR 30 | ATL | L |
| CAR@ATLW18 2024 | CAR 44, ATL 38 | ATL | L |
| ATL@CARW6 2024 | ATL 38, CAR 20 | ATL | W |
| ATL@CARW15 2023 | ATL 7, CAR 9 | ATL | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES