Falcons vs Panthers – Week 6 2024
ATL
CAR
ATL
AWAY
38@20
ATL BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 38, Carolina Panthers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 6 Panthers.
Model confidence: ATL 70%Our line: ATL -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -7.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.027Net EPA / play-0.213
+0.034 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.053 (23)
+0.061 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.160 (32)
48.1% (5)Offense success %41.3% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 18. Off by 10.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ATLW2 2026 | CAR 34, ATL 3 | ATL | L |
| CAR@ATLW11 2025 | CAR 30, ATL 27 | CAR | W |
| ATL@CARW3 2025 | ATL 0, CAR 30 | ATL | L |
| CAR@ATLW18 2024 | CAR 44, ATL 38 | ATL | L |
| ATL@CARW15 2023 | ATL 7, CAR 9 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs CAR
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project ATL by 7.1. The market has ATL at -6.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 38, CAR 20. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -6.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 6, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.7, 1.8 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 34, ATL 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.027 against CAR -0.213.
