Jaguars vs Bears – Week 6 2024
JAX
CHI
JAX
AWAY
16@35
CHI BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 16, Chicago Bears 35.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars, 4 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 63%Our line: CHI -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -4.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.149Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.020 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.082 (26)
+0.129 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (14)
41.5% (21)Offense success %39.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 19. Off by 14.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@JAXW16 2020 | CHI 41, JAX 17 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 4.6. The market has CHI at +1.5.
Chicago Bears won, JAX 16, CHI 35. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at +1.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 6, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 1.4 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 41, JAX 17 in Week 16 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Chicago Bears: JAX -0.149 against CHI -0.088.
