JAX @ CHI – Week 6 2024
JAX
CHI
JAX
AWAY
16@35
CHI BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 63%Our line: CHI -4.6
CHI
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.6
OUR LINE
-173
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.149Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.020Offense EPA / play-0.082
+0.129Defense EPA / play+0.006
41.5%Offense success %39.9%
45.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 19. Off by 14.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -120 | +100 |
| Our fair price | +173 | -173 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.24
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
48%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0 SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7 SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
130.2 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence2045 yd · 11 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Bigsby766 yd · 7 TD
T.Etienne558 yd · 2 TD
D.Johnson143 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
B.Thomas87 rec · 1282 yd · 10 TD
B.Strange40 rec · 411 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@JAXW16 2020 | CHI 41, JAX 17 | CHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 4.6. The market has CHI at +1.5.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 41, JAX 17 in Week 16 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Chicago Bears: JAX -0.149 against CHI -0.088.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
