2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ LV – Week 6 2024
PIT
LV
PIT
AWAY
32@13
PIT +19
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: PIT
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: PIT 60%Projected margin: -1.0
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-1.0
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 1.0. Actual: 19. Off by 18.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -180 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
168.3SEASON PPR
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LVW3 2023 | PIT 23, LV 18 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW16 2022 | LV 10, PIT 13 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW2 2021 | LV 26, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES