Steelers vs Raiders – Week 6 2024
PIT
LV
PIT
AWAY
32@13
PIT BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 32, Las Vegas Raiders 13.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Steelers, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: PIT 60%Our line: PIT -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.164
-0.034 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (31)
-0.018 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.021 (19)
40.4% (27)Offense success %40.5% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 19. Off by 15.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LVW3 2023 | PIT 23, LV 18 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW16 2022 | LV 10, PIT 13 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW2 2021 | LV 26, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs LV
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.5. The market has PIT at -3.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 32, LV 13. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 9.0 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 23, LV 18 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.016 against LV -0.164.
