Steelers vs Raiders – Week 3 2023
PIT
LV
PIT
AWAY
23@18
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Las Vegas Raiders 18.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 62%Our line: PIT -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -4.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.013Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.073 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.097 (25)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
42.0% (17)Offense success %41.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 4.3. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2070 yd · 6 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LVW6 2024 | PIT 32, LV 13 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW16 2022 | LV 10, PIT 13 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW2 2021 | LV 26, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs LV
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.3. The market has PIT at +3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 23, LV 18. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 3.7 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 32, LV 13 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.013 against LV -0.037.
