2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ LV – Week 3 2023
PIT
LV
PIT
AWAY
23@18
PIT +5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PIT
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: PIT 62%Projected margin: -2.2
PIT
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-2.2
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 2.2. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Won · +$1.54 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
George Pickens
WR
208.8SEASON PPR
Jaylen Warren
RB
196.4SEASON PPR
Najee Harris
RB
195.5SEASON PPR
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LVW6 2024 | PIT 32, LV 13 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW16 2022 | LV 10, PIT 13 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW2 2021 | LV 26, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES