Giants vs 49ers – Week 3 2023
NYG
SF
NYG
AWAY
12@30
SF BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 12, San Francisco 49ers 30.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Giants.
Model confidence: SF 79%Our line: SF -10.8
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -10.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.155Net EPA / play+0.255
-0.174 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.174 (1)
-0.019 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.082 (7)
37.9% (30)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 10.8. Actual: 18. Off by 7.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
133.2 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@NYGW9 2025 | SF 34, NYG 24 | SF | W |
| SF@NYGW3 2020 | SF 36, NYG 9 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 10.8. The market has SF at -10.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, NYG 12, SF 30. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -10.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 3, the New York Giants were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.9 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 34, NYG 24 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: NYG -0.155 against SF +0.255.
