Colts vs Ravens – Week 3 2023
IND
BAL
IND
AWAY
22@19
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 22, Baltimore Ravens 19.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts, 7 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 71%Our line: BAL -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.019Net EPA / play+0.215
-0.035 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.066 (5)
-0.017 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.149 (2)
40.8% (24)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but IND won. Projected margin was 7.5, the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@INDW1 2026 | BAL 41, IND 23 | BAL | W |
| IND@BALW5 2021 | IND 25, BAL 31 | BAL | W |
| BAL@INDW9 2020 | BAL 24, IND 10 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.5. The market has BAL at -7.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 22, BAL 19. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 3, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 3.9 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 41, IND 23 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: IND -0.019 against BAL +0.215.
