IND @ BAL – Week 3 2023
IND
BAL
IND
AWAY
22@19
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 71%Our line: BAL -7.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.5
OUR LINE
-245
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.019Net EPA / play+0.215
-0.035Offense EPA / play+0.066
-0.017Defense EPA / play-0.149
40.8%Offense success %47.4%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but IND won. Projected margin was 7.5, the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +300 | -380 |
| Our fair price | +245 | -245 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2 SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
169.6 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Zack Moss794 yd · 5 TD
Jonathan Taylor741 yd · 7 TD
Trey Sermon160 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman109 rec · 1152 yd · 4 TD
Josh Downs68 rec · 771 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@BALW5 2021 | IND 25, BAL 31 | BAL | W |
| BAL@INDW9 2020 | BAL 24, IND 10 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.5. The market has BAL at -7.5.
The model projects 47.4 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, IND 25, BAL 31 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: IND -0.019 against BAL +0.215.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
