2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ BAL – Week 3 2023
IND
BAL
IND
AWAY
22@19
IND +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 71%Projected margin: 6.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
6.1
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but IND won. Projected margin was 6.1 -- the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -380 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
169.6SEASON PPR
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@BALW5 2021 | IND 25, BAL 31 | BAL | W |
| BAL@INDW9 2020 | BAL 24, IND 10 | BAL | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES