Ravens vs Colts – Week 9 2020
BAL
IND
BAL
AWAY
24@10
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 24, Indianapolis Colts 10.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Ravens, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: BAL 55%Our line: BAL -1.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -1.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.180Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.120 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (12)
-0.060 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.030 (9)
45.8% (16)Offense success %46.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 1.6. Actual: 14. Off by 12.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@INDW1 2026 | BAL 41, IND 23 | BAL | W |
| IND@BALW3 2023 | IND 22, BAL 19 | BAL | L |
| IND@BALW5 2021 | IND 25, BAL 31 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs IND
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 1.6. The market has BAL at +1.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 24, IND 10. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at +1.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 9, the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 0.6 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 41, IND 23 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.180 against IND +0.109.
