BAL @ IND – Week 9 2020
BAL
IND
BAL
AWAY
24@10
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 55%Our line: BAL -1.6
BAL
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.6
OUR LINE
-121
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.180Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.120Offense EPA / play+0.079
-0.060Defense EPA / play-0.030
45.8%Offense success %46.6%
42.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 1.6. Actual: 14. Off by 12.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -106 | -104 |
| Our fair price | -121 | +121 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.15
OUR NUMBER
55%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
50%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
332.8 SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
183.0 SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
170.1 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
Lamar Jackson2757 yd · 26 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Lamar Jackson1005 yd · 7 TD
J.K. Dobbins805 yd · 9 TD
Gus Edwards723 yd · 6 TD
RECEIVING
Marquise Brown58 rec · 769 yd · 8 TD
Mark Andrews58 rec · 701 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@BALW3 2023 | IND 22, BAL 19 | BAL | L |
| IND@BALW5 2021 | IND 25, BAL 31 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 1.6. The market has BAL at +1.0.
The model projects 47.4 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 22, BAL 19 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.180 against IND +0.109.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
