2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ KC – Week 9 2020
CAR
KC
CAR
AWAY
31@33
KC +2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER S
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 73%Projected margin: 10.8
KC
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
10.8
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 10.8. Actual: 2. Off by 8.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -445 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@CARW12 2024 | KC 30, CAR 27 | KC | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES