CAR @ KC – Week 9 2020
CAR
KC
CAR
AWAY
31@33
KC BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: KC 73%Our line: KC -8.4
KC
PICK SIDE
-10.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.4
OUR LINE
-276
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.004Offense EPA / play+0.184
+0.077Defense EPA / play+0.045
45.0%Offense success %50.1%
47.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 8.4. Actual: 2. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +365 | -445 |
| Our fair price | +276 | -276 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -10.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.24
OUR NUMBER
73%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
79%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Mike Davis642 yd · 6 TD
Teddy Bridgewater279 yd · 5 TD
Christian McCaffrey225 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore66 rec · 1193 yd · 4 TD
Robbie Chosen95 rec · 1096 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@CARW12 2024 | KC 30, CAR 27 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 8.4. The market has KC at -10.0.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 51.5.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 30, CAR 27 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: CAR -0.073 against KC +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
