Panthers vs Chiefs – Week 9 2020
CAR
KC
CAR
AWAY
31@33
KC BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 31, Kansas City Chiefs 33.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 73%Our line: KC -8.4
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -8.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.004 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.184 (2)
+0.077 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (19)
45.0% (19)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 8.4. Actual: 2. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@CARW12 2024 | KC 30, CAR 27 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 8.4. The market has KC at -10.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, CAR 31, KC 33. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -10.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 9, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 5.4 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 30, CAR 27 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: CAR -0.073 against KC +0.138.
