Raiders vs Chargers – Week 9 2020
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
31@26
LV BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 31, Los Angeles Chargers 26.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Raiders, 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: LV 52%Our line: LV -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -0.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.085Net EPA / play+0.001
+0.045 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.027 (15)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
46.5% (11)Offense success %43.2% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 5. Off by 4.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4103 yd · 27 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Darren Waller107 rec · 1196 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW2 2026 | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs LAC
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 0.6. The market has LV at -1.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 31, LAC 26. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -1.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 9, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 4.2 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, LAC 14 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LV -0.085 against LAC +0.001.
