PIT @ DAL – Week 9 2020
PIT
DAL
PIT
AWAY
24@19
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 64%Our line: PIT -4.9
PIT
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.9
OUR LINE
-180
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.098
+0.010Offense EPA / play-0.038
-0.118Defense EPA / play+0.060
43.2%Offense success %45.7%
38.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 4.9. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -789 | +591 |
| Our fair price | -180 | +180 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
86%
DIFFERENCE
-22%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
Chase Claypool62 rec · 873 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@PITW5 2024 | DAL 20, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.9. The market has PIT at -14.0.
The model projects 47.3 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 20, PIT 17 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.128 against DAL -0.098.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
