Steelers vs Cowboys – Week 9 2020
PIT
DAL
PIT
AWAY
24@19
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Dallas Cowboys 19.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: PIT 64%Our line: PIT -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -4.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.098
+0.010 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (25)
-0.118 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.060 (20)
43.2% (25)Offense success %45.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 4.9. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@PITW5 2024 | DAL 20, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs DAL
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.9. The market has PIT at -14.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 24, DAL 19. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -14.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 9, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 3.3 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 20, PIT 17 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.128 against DAL -0.098.
