Cowboys vs Steelers – Week 5 2024
DAL
PIT
DAL
AWAY
20@17
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 4 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 59%Our line: PIT -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.109 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.034 (20)
+0.083 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (10)
40.6% (23)Offense success %40.4% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but DAL won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 6.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DALW9 2020 | PIT 24, DAL 19 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.2. The market has PIT at -2.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 20, PIT 17. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 24, DAL 19 in Week 9 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: DAL -0.192 against PIT -0.016.
