2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ PIT – Week 5 2024
DAL
PIT
DAL
AWAY
20@17
DAL +3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER C
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 59%Projected margin: 1.5
PIT
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
1.5
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but DAL won. Projected margin was 1.5 -- the model overestimated by 4.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -135 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
152.0SEASON PPR
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DALW9 2020 | PIT 24, DAL 19 | PIT | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES