MIA @ NE – Week 5 2024
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
15@10
MIA BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 64%Our line: MIA -4.8
MIA
PICK SIDE
-2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-177
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.017Net EPA / play-0.153
-0.039Offense EPA / play-0.083
-0.022Defense EPA / play+0.070
44.3%Offense success %42.4%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 4.8. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | -177 | +177 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.75
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9 SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3 SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
218.2 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2867 yd · 19 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane907 yd · 6 TD
R.Mostert278 yd · 2 TD
J.Wright249 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Hill81 rec · 959 yd · 6 TD
J.Smith88 rec · 884 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.8. The market has MIA at -2.0.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 37.0.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.017 against NE -0.153.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
