Dolphins vs Patriots – Week 5 2024
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
15@10
MIA BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 15, New England Patriots 10.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: MIA 64%Our line: MIA -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.017Net EPA / play-0.153
-0.039 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.083 (27)
-0.022 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (29)
44.3% (15)Offense success %42.4% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 4.8. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.8. The market has MIA at -2.0.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 15, NE 10. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -2.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 5, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 7.8 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.017 against NE -0.153.
