2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ NE – Week 5 2024
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
15@10
MIA +5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 64%Projected margin: -2.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
-2.0
SPREAD
-2.3
PROJ MARGIN
-133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 2.3. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -130 | Won · +$0.75 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
218.2SEASON PPR
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES